The correlation between monthly changes in gold and the 10-year real yield is −0.46 since 2003 — twice the nominal yield. Why the usual method gets it wrong.

Four scheduled US releases account for most of gold’s calendar-driven moves, and they work through one mechanism rather than four. Why the surprise matters more than the number.

Gold pays no interest, so what a bond pays after inflation is the real competition. Splitting a Treasury yield into its two parts takes two minutes and three free public series.